Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

GO Ahead Eagles–AZ Alkmaar

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 April 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		AZ Alkmaar
15	Shots	23
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	10
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
369	Passes	364
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 · AZ Alkmaar 1.66. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 15 · AZ Alkmaar 23; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.32

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.55 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win44.0%

Draw24.3%

AZ Alkmaar to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles win or draw68.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win56.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time39.0%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 9
AZ Alkmaar: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 5
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.43

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.66

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–19.7%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1189 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 132 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.