Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

AZ Alkmaar–Heerenveen

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: Mees De Wit)
8'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans
71'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: K. Smit)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Heerenveen
23	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
537	Passes	392
460	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.98 · Heerenveen 1.19. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 23 · Heerenveen 7; on target 10 and 1.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.63

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.28 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,187 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win56.6%

Draw22.3%

Heerenveen to win21.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw78.9%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win43.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time41.4%

Level at half-time37.5%

Heerenveen lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead58.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1187 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 8Actual: 5
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 6
Heerenveen: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.98

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.19

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.1%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1187 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.