Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

Fortuna Sittard–NAC Breda

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Fortuna SittardK. Peterson (assist: N. Kasanwirjo)
90'NAC BredaMohamed Nassoh (assist: A. Salama)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		NAC Breda
10	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	6
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	8
3	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
341	Passes	431
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.64 · NAC Breda 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 10 · NAC Breda 14; on target 2 and 7.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.32

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.42 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,184 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win33.8%

Draw27.6%

NAC Breda to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time35.6%

NAC Breda lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1184 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 11Actual: 11
NAC Breda: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 5
NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.64

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.19

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.4%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.