Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

Sparta Rotterdam–PSV Eindhoven

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi (assist: G. Til)
80'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: Couhaib Driouech)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		PSV Eindhoven
9	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
352	Passes	572
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 · PSV Eindhoven 1.94. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 9 · PSV Eindhoven 18; on target 4 and 5.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

A. Bos→

3.00

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “Sparta Rotterdam to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Sparta Rotterdam, 2.13 for PSV Eindhoven.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win27.3%

Draw22.5%

PSV Eindhoven to win50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time24.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time36.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level63.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or PSV Eindhoven ahead76.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 6
PSV Eindhoven: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 3Actual: 2
PSV Eindhoven: at least 6Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.24

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score1.94

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.6%1–19.1%2–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.