Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

NAC Breda–Sparta Rotterdam

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Sparta Rotterdam
12	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
434	Passes	349
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.43 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.31. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots NAC Breda 12 · Sparta Rotterdam 6; on target 4 and 3.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.10

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “Sparta Rotterdam to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for NAC Breda, 1.31 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,178 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win43.2%

Draw26.5%

Sparta Rotterdam to win30.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

NAC Breda lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time43.6%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1178 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 12
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 11
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.43

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.31

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.