Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

FC Volendam–Feyenoord

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		Feyenoord
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
349	Passes	439
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.03 · Feyenoord 2.08. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC Volendam 13 · Feyenoord 17; on target 4 and 4.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.17

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for FC Volendam, 2.23 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (X2 — draw or Feyenoord win).
These values were computed from 1,176 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win14.6%

Draw20.3%

Feyenoord to win65.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Volendam win or draw35.0%

12 — any result other than a draw79.7%

X2 — draw or Feyenoord win85.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Volendam lead at half-time15.4%

Level at half-time36.1%

Feyenoord lead at half-time48.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level51.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead84.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1176 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 10
Feyenoord: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 5
Feyenoord: at least 6Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.03

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score2.08

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.08 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%1–19.8%0–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1176 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.