Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

GO Ahead Eagles–PEC Zwolle

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'GO Ahead EaglesS. Sigurðarson (assist: A. Adelgaard)
7'GO Ahead EaglesS. Tengstedt (assist: A. Sampsted)
15'GO Ahead EaglesV. Edvardsen (assist: A. Sampsted)
56'GO Ahead EaglesA. Adelgaard (assist: J. Breum)
63'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: E. Linthorst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		PEC Zwolle
15	Shots	16
12	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
389	Passes	357
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.89 · PEC Zwolle 1.27. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 15 · PEC Zwolle 16; on target 12 and 1.

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.42

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

126

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “PEC Zwolle to win” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.28 for PEC Zwolle.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,175 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win52.3%

Draw23.8%

PEC Zwolle to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time38.6%

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or PEC Zwolle ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1175 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 9
PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 5
PEC Zwolle: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.89

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.27

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–110.6%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.