Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

Ajax–Twente

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'TwenteR. Zerrouki (assist: S. Ørjasæter)
32'AjaxW. Weghorst (assist: M. Godts)
79'TwenteB. van Rooij (assist: S. Lammers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		Twente
10	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
508	Passes	481
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 1.62 · Twente 1.33. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Ajax 10 · Twente 16; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

S. van der Eijk→

3.49

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “Twente to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Ajax, 1.55 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,173 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win41.4%

Draw24.9%

Twente to win33.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ajax win or draw66.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.1%

X2 — draw or Twente win58.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ajax lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time39.6%

Twente lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajax ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Twente ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajax: at least 8Actual: 14
Twente: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Ajax: at least 4Actual: 2
Twente: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score1.62

Attack: Ajax score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.33

Attack: Twente score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1173 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 130 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.