Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

PSV Eindhoven–Utrecht

4–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'UtrechtA. Stepanov (assist: N. Vesterlund)
13'UtrechtG. Zechiël (assist: Ángel Alarcón)
21'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: I. Perišić)
48'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: Mauro Junior)
52'PSV EindhovenG. Til (assist: I. Saibari)
82'UtrechtJ. Karlsson

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Utrecht
19	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	7
12	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
537	Passes	298
469	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 2.15 · Utrecht 1.03. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 19 · Utrecht 12; on target 8 and 7.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.10

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.3%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.17 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,170 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win66.3%

Draw18.8%

Utrecht to win14.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time50.1%

Level at half-time34.9%

Utrecht lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead49.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1170 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 9Actual: 6
Utrecht: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 6Actual: 8
Utrecht: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.15

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.15 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Utrecht score1.03

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%3–18.5%1–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.