Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

NEC Nijmegen–Heerenveen

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'NEC NijmegenT. Chery
37'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: V. Zagaritis)
45'HeerenveenR. Meerveld (assist: J. van Overeem)
57'NEC NijmegenT. Chery (assist: K. Sano)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Heerenveen
22	Shots	11
10	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
441	Passes	370
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 2.00 · Heerenveen 1.33. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 22 · Heerenveen 11; on target 10 and 5.

Referee

M. van den Kerkhof→

2.61

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.2%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.31 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — NEC Nijmegen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win58.2%

Draw21.4%

Heerenveen to win20.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time38.0%

Heerenveen lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 9Actual: 6
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 5Actual: 6
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score2.00

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.33

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%1–19.4%3–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.