Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

PEC Zwolle–NAC Breda

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'PEC ZwolleT. Oosting (assist: O. Velanas)
24'PEC ZwolleO. Velanas
67'NAC BredaMohamed Nassoh (assist: R. Paula)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		NAC Breda
8	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
362	Passes	447
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.64 · NAC Breda 1.25. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots PEC Zwolle 8 · NAC Breda 20; on target 2 and 6.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Blank→

3.46

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “PEC Zwolle to win”. Second comes “NAC Breda to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for PEC Zwolle, 1.30 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win42.1%

Draw26.9%

NAC Breda to win31.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time37.3%

NAC Breda lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1164 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 20
NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 2
NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.64

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.25

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.9%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.