Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

Sparta Rotterdam–FC Volendam

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Sparta RotterdamS. Mito (assist: Teo Quintero)
33'Sparta RotterdamT. Lauritsen (assist: V. van Crooij)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		FC Volendam
16	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
417	Passes	404
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.92 · FC Volendam 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 16 · FC Volendam 8; on target 9 and 3.

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.18

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Sparta Rotterdam, 0.98 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — Sparta Rotterdam win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,163 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win66.5%

Draw19.9%

FC Volendam to win13.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

FC Volendam lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1163 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 9Actual: 15
FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 6Actual: 3
FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.92

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.05

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–010.2%1–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.