Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

Heracles–Excelsior

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'HeraclesSem Scheperman
57'ExcelsiorD. Sanches Fernandes (assist: N. Naujoks)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heracles		Excelsior
13	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
370	Passes	376
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heracles 1.65 · Excelsior 1.48. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Heracles 13 · Excelsior 15; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

J. Kooij→

3.28

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “Heracles to win” at 36.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Heracles, 1.47 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heracles to win36.6%

Draw26.7%

Excelsior to win36.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Heracles lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time40.7%

Excelsior lead at half-time34.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Heracles ahead or level65.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heracles: at least 9Actual: 17
Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Heracles: at least 5Actual: 6
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heracles score1.65

Attack: Heracles score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.48

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.