Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

GO Ahead Eagles–NAC Breda

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: V. Edvardsen)
41'GO Ahead EaglesS. Sigurðarson (assist: J. Slory)
45'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Breum (assist: V. Edvardsen)
73'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Breum
76'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Breum (assist: V. Edvardsen)
82'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Kramer

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		NAC Breda
11	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	9
4	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
354	Passes	426
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.70 · NAC Breda 1.23. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 11 · NAC Breda 20; on target 6 and 3.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.20

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “NAC Breda to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.23 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,160 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win44.5%

Draw26.9%

NAC Breda to win28.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,779 of 4,000 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time39.6%

Level at half-time40.1%

NAC Breda lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead60.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1160 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 8
NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 3

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 3
NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.70

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score1.23

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.1%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.