Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

Feyenoord–Excelsior

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'ExcelsiorA. Zagré (assist: S. van Gassel)
58'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: J. Bos)
59'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: R. Sterling)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Excelsior
15	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
356	Passes	379
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.47 · Excelsior 0.85. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Feyenoord 15 · Excelsior 12; on target 9 and 3.

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.10

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.7%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.55 for Feyenoord, 0.95 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win72.7%

Draw16.8%

Excelsior to win10.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Feyenoord win or draw89.5%

12 — any result other than a draw83.2%

X2 — draw or Excelsior win27.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Feyenoord lead at half-time52.6%

Level at half-time34.7%

Excelsior lead at half-time12.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Feyenoord ahead or level87.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead47.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Feyenoord: at least 7Actual: 10
Excelsior: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Feyenoord: at least 6Actual: 9
Excelsior: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.47

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score0.85

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.2%2–010.0%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1158 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.