Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

AZ Alkmaar–Heracles

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: Mees De Wit)
45'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: T. Parrott)
74'AZ AlkmaarMees De Wit (assist: T. Parrott)
84'AZ AlkmaarI. Jensen

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Heracles
14	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
427	Passes	396
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 2.45 · Heracles 0.90. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 14 · Heracles 6; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.07

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.0%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.97 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 88.6% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win71.0%

Draw17.6%

Heracles to win11.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw88.6%

12 — any result other than a draw82.4%

X2 — draw or Heracles win29.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time56.7%

Level at half-time32.5%

Heracles lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time67.5%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead43.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 9Actual: 10
Heracles: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 7
Heracles: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score2.45

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score0.90

Attack: Heracles score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%2–09.9%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1158 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.