Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

PEC Zwolle–Groningen

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'PEC ZwolleK. Kostons
84'GroningenT. van Bergen (assist: Y. Taha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		Groningen
14	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
405	Passes	404
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.42 · Groningen 1.62. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots PEC Zwolle 14 · Groningen 16; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

A. Bos→

3.07

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “PEC Zwolle to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for PEC Zwolle, 1.52 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,152 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win35.0%

Draw26.5%

Groningen to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time40.0%

Groningen lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1152 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 9Actual: 12
Groningen: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 3Actual: 7
Groningen: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.42

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score1.62

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.