Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 26

NEC Nijmegen–FC Volendam

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'NEC NijmegenN. Lebreton
47'NEC NijmegenB. Önal (assist: N. Lebreton)
63'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa (assist: T. Chery)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		FC Volendam
27	Shots	7
11	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
12	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
457	Passes	354
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 2.37 · FC Volendam 1.01. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 27 · FC Volendam 7; on target 11 and 3.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.65

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.4%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for NEC Nijmegen, 0.89 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 90.6% (1X — NEC Nijmegen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,151 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win74.4%

Draw16.2%

FC Volendam to win9.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time46.7%

Level at half-time37.1%

FC Volendam lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead53.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1151 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 10
FC Volendam: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 6Actual: 12
FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score2.37

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.01

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%2–110.1%3–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.