Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 26

NAC Breda–Feyenoord

3–3

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: A. Hadj-Moussa)
22'NAC BredaK. Sowah
31'FeyenoordL. Valente (assist: M. Deijl)
39'NAC BredaB. Lucassen (assist: B. Kemper)
45'NAC BredaA. Ayew (assist: L. Holtby)
52'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: J. Bos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Feyenoord
12	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
308	Passes	414
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.10 · Feyenoord 1.84. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots NAC Breda 12 · Feyenoord 14; on target 4 and 5.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.31

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for NAC Breda, 1.79 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (X2 — draw or Feyenoord win).
These values were computed from 1,150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win23.7%

Draw25.0%

Feyenoord to win51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–2

NAC Breda lead at half-time16.9%

Level at half-time38.2%

Feyenoord lead at half-time45.0%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level55.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead83.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 12
Feyenoord: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 3Actual: 4
Feyenoord: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.10

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score1.84

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.7%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.