Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 26

GO Ahead Eagles–Twente

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'TwenteJari De Busser (own goal)
26'TwenteS. Lammers (assist: B. van Rooij)
50'TwenteK. Hlynsson
56'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Breum (assist: M. Suray)
74'TwenteS. Lammers (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Twente
15	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
427	Passes	413
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.25 · Twente 1.75. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 15 · Twente 11; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

A. Bos→

3.11

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for GO Ahead Eagles, 2.08 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Twente win).
These values were computed from 1,148 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win20.3%

Draw22.4%

Twente to win57.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time42.7%

Twente lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Twente ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1148 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 8
Twente: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 6
Twente: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.25

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.75

Attack: Twente score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.5%0–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.