Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 25

FC Volendam–Groningen

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'GroningenS. Resink (assist: Y. Taha)
45'FC VolendamB. Kuwas (penalty)
56'FC VolendamA. Oehlers (assist: Dave Kwakman)
90'GroningenT. van Bergen (assist: J. Schreuders)
90'FC VolendamR. Muhren

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		Groningen
12	Shots	28
4	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	18
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	10
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
353	Passes	370
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.23 · Groningen 1.59. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots FC Volendam 12 · Groningen 28; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

R. Martens→

2.85

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for FC Volendam, 1.71 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (X2 — draw or Groningen win).
These values were computed from 1,139 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win25.3%

Draw25.7%

Groningen to win49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Volendam lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

Groningen lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1139 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 8Actual: 8
Groningen: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 2
Groningen: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.23

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score1.59

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.5%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.