Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 25

Twente–Feyenoord

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'TwenteK. Hlynsson (assist: S. Ørjasæter)
72'TwenteS. Ørjasæter (assist: K. Hlynsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Twente		Feyenoord
19	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
409	Passes	355
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Twente 1.65 · Feyenoord 1.42. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Twente 19 · Feyenoord 8; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

J. Kooij→

3.35

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “Feyenoord to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Twente, 1.36 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,139 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Twente to win45.7%

Draw25.3%

Feyenoord to win29.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Twente lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time40.3%

Feyenoord lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Twente ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1139 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Twente: at least 10Actual: 13
Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Twente: at least 4Actual: 4
Feyenoord: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Twente score1.65

Attack: Twente score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score1.42

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.42 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.