Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 24

AZ Alkmaar–Sparta Rotterdam

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: Mateo Chávez)
83'AZ AlkmaarK. Smit (assist: Mees De Wit)
87'Sparta RotterdamM. Zonneveld (assist: C. Terho)
90'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: J. Zoet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Sparta Rotterdam
11	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
374	Passes	438
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.93 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.11. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 11 · Sparta Rotterdam 12; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.19

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “Sparta Rotterdam to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.29 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,132 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win47.8%

Draw25.3%

Sparta Rotterdam to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time38.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead61.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1132 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 9Actual: 9
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 6Actual: 2
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.93

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.11

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.4%1–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.