Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 24

NAC Breda–FC Volendam

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

87'NAC BredaP. Reulen (assist: R. Paula)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		FC Volendam
17	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
377	Passes	352
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.69 · FC Volendam 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots NAC Breda 17 · FC Volendam 8; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

D. Higler→

3.08

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for NAC Breda, 0.99 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (1X — NAC Breda win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win59.1%

Draw23.3%

FC Volendam to win17.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

NAC Breda lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time41.9%

FC Volendam lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 13
FC Volendam: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 6Actual: 6
FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.69

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.13

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–111.0%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.