Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 24

Fortuna Sittard–Excelsior

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Fortuna SittardM. Ihattaren (penalty)
58'Fortuna SittardK. Sierhuis (assist: L. Duijvestijn)
78'ExcelsiorN. Naujoks (assist: M. van Duinen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Excelsior
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
395	Passes	465
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.65 · Excelsior 1.30. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 16 · Excelsior 10; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

M. van den Kerkhof→

2.60

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Fortuna Sittard to win”. Second comes “Excelsior to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.23 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,125 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win42.9%

Draw27.3%

Excelsior to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

Excelsior lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1125 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 9Actual: 7
Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 5
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.65

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.30

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.9%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.