Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 23

Sparta Rotterdam–NEC Nijmegen

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Sparta RotterdamB. Martins Indi (assist: M. Young)
73'NEC NijmegenK. Ogawa (assist: K. Sano)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		NEC Nijmegen
13	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
312	Passes	452
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.63 · NEC Nijmegen 1.59. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 13 · NEC Nijmegen 12; on target 5 and 5.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. van der Laan→

2.90

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,124 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win39.6%

Draw25.7%

NEC Nijmegen to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time40.6%

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or NEC Nijmegen ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1124 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 9Actual: 18
NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 4Actual: 8
NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.63

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.59

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.