Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 20

GO Ahead Eagles–Heerenveen

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'GO Ahead EaglesJ. Dirksen (assist: J. Breum)
58'HeerenveenL. Nordås
68'HeerenveenL. Nordås (assist: M. Rivera)
81'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: M. Rivera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Heerenveen
13	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	10
9	Shots inside the box	13
7	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
383	Passes	471
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.61 · Heerenveen 1.54. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 13 · Heerenveen 19; on target 6 and 10.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.21

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 36.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.53 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win36.6%

Draw26.1%

Heerenveen to win37.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time38.7%

Heerenveen lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 8
Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 8
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.61

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.54

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.