Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 22

Fortuna Sittard–Sparta Rotterdam

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Fortuna SittardL. Duijvestijn (assist: Ivo Pinto)
62'Sparta RotterdamT. Lauritsen
90'Fortuna SittardY. Oukili (assist: N. Kasanwirjo)
90'Sparta RotterdamC. Terho (assist: S. Mito)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Sparta Rotterdam
11	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	13
3	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
334	Passes	577
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.46 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.44. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 11 · Sparta Rotterdam 16; on target 3 and 5.
Sparta Rotterdam kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Bos→

3.09

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Sittard to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.54 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,109 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win31.7%

Draw26.8%

Sparta Rotterdam to win41.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time42.6%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1109 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 13
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 5Actual: 3
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.46

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.44

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.8%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.