Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 22

Twente–Heerenveen

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'TwenteR. Zerrouki
30'TwenteM. Rots
54'TwenteD. Rots (assist: S. Lammers)
63'TwenteK. Hlynsson
84'TwenteS. Lammers (assist: A. Verschueren)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Twente		Heerenveen
29	Shots	7
14	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
537	Passes	361
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Twente 1.87 · Heerenveen 1.16. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Twente 29 · Heerenveen 7; on target 14 and 0.
Twente kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.32

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Twente, 1.05 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Twente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,108 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Twente to win60.5%

Draw22.2%

Heerenveen to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Twente win or draw82.7%

12 — any result other than a draw77.8%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win39.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Twente lead at half-time42.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

Heerenveen lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Twente ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead57.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1108 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Twente: at least 9Actual: 8
Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Twente: at least 4
Heerenveen: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Twente score1.87

Attack: Twente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.16

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.9%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1108 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 122 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.