Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 22

PEC Zwolle–FC Volendam

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'PEC ZwolleTristan Gooijer (assist: S. Graves)
34'FC VolendamR. van Cruijsen (assist: B. Kuwas)
90'FC VolendamB. Kuwas (assist: Dave Kwakman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		FC Volendam
14	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
430	Passes	317
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.89 · FC Volendam 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots PEC Zwolle 14 · FC Volendam 15; on target 4 and 7.
PEC Zwolle kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.20

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “PEC Zwolle to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for PEC Zwolle, 1.02 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — PEC Zwolle win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win60.6%

Draw22.4%

FC Volendam to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time48.2%

Level at half-time36.4%

FC Volendam lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead51.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 18
FC Volendam: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 6
FC Volendam: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.89

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.14

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.