Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 21

PEC Zwolle–Telstar

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'PEC ZwolleS. Shoretire (assist: S. Graves)
60'TelstarN. Rossen
67'PEC ZwolleK. Kostons
70'PEC ZwolleTristan Gooijer (assist: K. Kostons)
83'PEC ZwolleK. Kostons (assist: K. de Rooij)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		Telstar
16	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
466	Passes	337
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.62 · Telstar 1.49. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots PEC Zwolle 16 · Telstar 14; on target 9 and 8.
PEC Zwolle kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Bos→

3.16

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “PEC Zwolle to win”. Second comes “Telstar to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for PEC Zwolle, 1.36 for Telstar.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win41.2%

Draw26.6%

Telstar to win32.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time38.9%

Telstar lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Telstar ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 11
Telstar: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 6
Telstar: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.62

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Telstar's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Telstar score1.49

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.