Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 20

Telstar–AZ Alkmaar

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'AZ AlkmaarI. Jensen (assist: T. Parrott)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Telstar		AZ Alkmaar
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
369	Passes	401
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Telstar 1.40 · AZ Alkmaar 1.81. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Telstar 10 · AZ Alkmaar 12; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.22

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “Telstar to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Telstar, 1.66 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,092 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Telstar to win29.2%

Draw25.9%

AZ Alkmaar to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Telstar lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time39.4%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Telstar ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1092 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Telstar: at least 9Actual: 13
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Telstar: at least 4Actual: 5
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Telstar score1.40

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.81

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Telstar's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.2%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.