Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 20

PSV Eindhoven–NAC Breda

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'PSV EindhovenC. Driouech (assist: J. Veerman)
45'NAC BredaB. Kemper (assist: Mohamed Nassoh)
45'NAC BredaC. Brym
90'PSV EindhovenA. Obispo (assist: J. Veerman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		NAC Breda
16	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
73%	Possession	27%
665	Passes	248
572	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 2.80 · NAC Breda 0.68. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 16 · NAC Breda 6; on target 4 and 2.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

D. Higler→

3.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.3%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.94 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win69.3%

Draw18.7%

NAC Breda to win12.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time78.9%

Level at half-time20.3%

NAC Breda lead at half-time0.9%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level99.1%

12 — not level at half-time79.7%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead21.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 10Actual: 13
NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 5Actual: 10
NAC Breda: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.80

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score0.68

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–010.5%1–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.