Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 20

Ajax–FC Volendam

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AjaxY. Baas (assist: R. Bounida)
36'AjaxY. Baas (assist: R. Bounida)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		FC Volendam
31	Shots	5
14	Shots on target	2
18	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	11
10	Corners	0
2	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
615	Passes	343
545	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 2.46 · FC Volendam 0.82. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ajax 31 · FC Volendam 5; on target 14 and 2.
Ajax kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. van der Laan→

2.86

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.9%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for Ajax, 0.89 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (1X — Ajax win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win72.9%

Draw17.1%

FC Volendam to win10.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ajax win or draw89.9%

12 — any result other than a draw82.9%

X2 — draw or FC Volendam win27.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.1%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ajax lead at half-time61.2%

Level at half-time31.4%

FC Volendam lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajax ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time68.6%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead38.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajax: at least 9Actual: 10
FC Volendam: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Ajax: at least 6
FC Volendam: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score2.46

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score0.82

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajax's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.4%3–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1088 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.