Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 16

AZ Alkmaar–Excelsior

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 21 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott
81'ExcelsiorM. Jonathans (assist: M. van Duinen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Excelsior
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
622	Passes	402
522	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 2.48 · Excelsior 0.93. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 13 · Excelsior 8; on target 4 and 2.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Bos→

3.14

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.2%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.89 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,087 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win72.2%

Draw17.5%

Excelsior to win10.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw89.6%

12 — any result other than a draw82.5%

X2 — draw or Excelsior win27.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time49.0%

Level at half-time35.7%

Excelsior lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.3%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead51.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1087 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 8Actual: 8
Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 6Actual: 4
Excelsior: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score2.48

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score0.93

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%2–110.4%3–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1087 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 86 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.