Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 19

NAC Breda–NEC Nijmegen

3–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'NEC NijmegenE. Dasa
17'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa (assist: K. Ogawa)
38'NAC BredaM. Soumano (assist: Rio Hillen)
55'NAC BredaM. Soumano (assist: C. Brym)
69'NEC NijmegenD. Proper (assist: T. Chery)
81'NAC BredaB. Kemper (assist: L. Holtby)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		NEC Nijmegen
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
309	Passes	401
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.40 · NEC Nijmegen 1.69. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots NAC Breda 14 · NEC Nijmegen 11; on target 5 and 8.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Blank→

3.48

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for NAC Breda, 1.41 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,082 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win37.4%

Draw27.0%

NEC Nijmegen to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

NAC Breda lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time41.9%

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or NEC Nijmegen ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1082 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 13
NEC Nijmegen: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 2
NEC Nijmegen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.40

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.69

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.