Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 19

PEC Zwolle–AZ Alkmaar

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'PEC ZwolleS. Shoretire (assist: Y. Namli)
26'PEC ZwolleA. MacNulty (assist: Y. Namli)
74'AZ AlkmaarPeer Koopmeiners
90'PEC ZwolleS. Shoretire (assist: S. Floranus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		AZ Alkmaar
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
390	Passes	427
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.19 · AZ Alkmaar 1.96. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots PEC Zwolle 12 · AZ Alkmaar 12; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

D. Higler→

3.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.5%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for PEC Zwolle, 2.21 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win).
These values were computed from 1,079 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win15.0%

Draw20.5%

AZ Alkmaar to win64.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time23.9%

Level at half-time37.1%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time39.0%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level61.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead76.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1079 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 12
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 3Actual: 3
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.19

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.96

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%1–19.9%0–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.