Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 17

Fortuna Sittard–AZ Alkmaar

4–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Fortuna SittardJ. Lonwijk (assist: M. Ihattaren)
19'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: Mees De Wit)
21'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: Alexandre Penetra)
42'Fortuna SittardK. Sierhuis (assist: R. Fosso)
54'Fortuna SittardK. Sierhuis (assist: Ivo Pinto)
71'AZ Alkmaar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		AZ Alkmaar
15	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	9
9	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
246	Passes	467
164	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.24 · AZ Alkmaar 1.67. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 15 · AZ Alkmaar 21; on target 6 and 9.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands→

3.00

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard, 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win19.4%

Draw23.0%

AZ Alkmaar to win57.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time21.7%

Level at half-time40.0%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time38.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level61.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead78.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 18
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 5
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.24

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.67

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–210.9%0–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.