Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 17

GO Ahead Eagles–Groningen

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: M. Smit)
61'GroningenT. de Jonge (assist: J. Schreuders)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Groningen
8	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	8
3	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
387	Passes	422
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.54 · Groningen 1.52. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 8 · Groningen 14; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands→

3.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.61 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,066 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win27.7%

Draw26.5%

Groningen to win45.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time39.8%

Groningen lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1066 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 7
Groningen: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 4Actual: 1
Groningen: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.54

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score1.52

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.3%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.