Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 17

NEC Nijmegen–Ajax

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NEC NijmegenV. Jaroš (own goal)
38'AjaxK. Dolberg (assist: A. Gaaei)
44'AjaxM. Godts (assist: Y. Regeer)
46'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa (assist: B. Linssen)
59'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Ajax
15	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
338	Passes	518
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.73 · Ajax 1.54. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 15 · Ajax 19; on target 6 and 8.
Ajax kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

3.44

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “Ajax to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.55 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,063 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win44.0%

Draw24.3%

Ajax to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time40.5%

Ajax lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1063 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 11Actual: 8
Ajax: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 1
Ajax: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.73

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score1.54

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–19.7%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.