Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 17

Heracles–Heerenveen

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: D. Vente)
77'HeerenveenV. Zagaritis (assist: M. Rivera)
90'HeerenveenM. Rivera (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heracles		Heerenveen
8	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	8
4	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
4	Offsides	5
42%	Possession	58%
353	Passes	500
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heracles 1.51 · Heerenveen 1.74. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Heracles 8 · Heerenveen 15; on target 2 and 8.
Heerenveen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands→

1.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “Heracles to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Heracles, 1.75 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,061 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heracles to win26.9%

Draw25.3%

Heerenveen to win47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Heracles lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time38.2%

Heerenveen lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Heracles ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1061 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heracles: at least 10Actual: 12
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Heracles: at least 4Actual: 4
Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heracles score1.51

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.74

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.4%0–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.