Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 16

NAC Breda–Utrecht

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'NAC BredaR. Paula (assist: J. Talvitie)
26'UtrechtD. de Wit (assist: Souffian El Karouani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Utrecht
16	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
535	Passes	413
464	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.38 · Utrecht 1.52. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots NAC Breda 16 · Utrecht 11; on target 3 and 6.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “Utrecht to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for NAC Breda, 1.33 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,060 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win36.1%

Draw28.1%

Utrecht to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

NAC Breda lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Utrecht lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1060 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 10
Utrecht: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 6
Utrecht: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.38

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.52

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.0%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.