Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 16

Groningen–FC Volendam

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Euroborg, Groningen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'FC VolendamMawouna Amevor · red card
38'GroningenS. Resink
74'GroningenB. Willumsson (assist: T. van Bergen)
89'GroningenS. Resink (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Groningen		FC Volendam
26	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
18	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
493	Passes	237
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Groningen 2.07 · FC Volendam 1.00. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Groningen 26 · FC Volendam 4; on target 7 and 1.
Groningen kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.63

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.8%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.32 for Groningen, 0.90 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Groningen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Groningen to win69.8%

Draw18.7%

FC Volendam to win11.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Groningen lead at half-time49.5%

Level at half-time37.1%

FC Volendam lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Groningen ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead50.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Groningen: at least 9Actual: 7
FC Volendam: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Groningen: at least 5Actual: 18
FC Volendam: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Groningen score2.07

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.00

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%2–110.7%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.