Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 15

Utrecht–Twente

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'UtrechtV. Jensen
82'TwenteM. Rots (assist: T. van den Belt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Twente
12	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
286	Passes	503
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 1.58 · Twente 1.45. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Utrecht 12 · Twente 21; on target 4 and 6.
Twente kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

3.50

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “Twente to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Utrecht, 1.32 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win37.9%

Draw27.8%

Twente to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Utrecht lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time41.4%

Twente lead at half-time22.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level77.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Twente ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 9Actual: 8
Twente: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 6
Twente: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score1.58

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.45

Attack: Twente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.3%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.