Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 15

Feyenoord–PEC Zwolle

6–1

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: Gonçalo Borges)
20'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: Q. Timber)
37'FeyenoordQ. Timber (penalty)
42'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: G. Smal)
55'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: L. Valente)
84'FeyenoordC. Tengstedt

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		PEC Zwolle
25	Shots	7
12	Shots on target	4
19	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
440	Passes	337
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.85 · PEC Zwolle 0.68. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Feyenoord 25 · PEC Zwolle 7; on target 12 and 4.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands→

3.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.4%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.09 for Feyenoord, 0.80 for PEC Zwolle.
The highest double chance value is 94.6% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,048 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win83.4%

Draw11.2%

PEC Zwolle to win5.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Feyenoord lead at half-time70.4%

Level at half-time25.7%

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time3.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Feyenoord ahead or level96.1%

12 — not level at half-time74.3%

X2 — level or PEC Zwolle ahead29.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1048 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Feyenoord: at least 8Actual: 17
PEC Zwolle: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Feyenoord: at least 6Actual: 8
PEC Zwolle: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.85

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.85 goals.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score0.68

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.4%2–09.8%3–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.