Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 15

Heracles–Telstar

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'TelstarM. Zonneveld (assist: J. Hardeveld)
90'HeraclesI. Mesík (assist: M. Engels)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heracles		Telstar
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
330	Passes	396
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heracles 1.73 · Telstar 1.60. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Heracles 15 · Telstar 11; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Heracles to win”. Second comes “Telstar to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Heracles, 1.42 for Telstar.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,047 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heracles to win40.9%

Draw26.1%

Telstar to win33.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Heracles lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time38.0%

Telstar lead at half-time30.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Heracles ahead or level70.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Telstar ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1047 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heracles: at least 10Actual: 15
Telstar: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Heracles: at least 5Actual: 6
Telstar: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heracles score1.73

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Telstar's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Telstar score1.60

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.7%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.