Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 15

Excelsior–Groningen

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'GroningenT. van Bergen
70'ExcelsiorS. Middendorp · red card
89'GroningenM. Rente · red card
90'GroningenS. Resink (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Excelsior		Groningen
16	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
417	Passes	502
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Excelsior 1.40 · Groningen 1.57. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Excelsior 16 · Groningen 20; on target 6 and 8.

Referee

Martijn Vos, Netherlands→

5.50

yellows per match

1.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Excelsior, 1.58 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (X2 — draw or Groningen win).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Excelsior to win26.1%

Draw26.9%

Groningen to win47.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Excelsior lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time40.3%

Groningen lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Excelsior ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1044 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 10
Groningen: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 5
Groningen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Excelsior score1.40

Attack: Excelsior score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score1.57

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Excelsior concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.3%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.