Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 14

Twente–AZ Alkmaar

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'TwenteD. Rots (assist: B. van Rooij)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Twente		AZ Alkmaar
7	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
447	Passes	431
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Twente 1.70 · AZ Alkmaar 1.44. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Twente 7 · AZ Alkmaar 7; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

3.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Twente, 1.42 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,042 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Twente to win43.9%

Draw25.4%

AZ Alkmaar to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Twente win or draw69.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Twente lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time39.7%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Twente ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1042 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Twente: at least 10Actual: 13
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Twente: at least 4Actual: 2
AZ Alkmaar: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Twente score1.70

Attack: Twente score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.44

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Twente's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1042 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 115 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.