Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 14

GO Ahead Eagles–Utrecht

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'UtrechtY. Cathline (assist: G. Zechiël)
50'UtrechtG. Zechiël (assist: D. de Wit)
74'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: M. Smit)
82'GO Ahead EaglesR. Margaret (assist: T. Baeten)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Utrecht
11	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
529	Passes	366
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.65 · Utrecht 1.46. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 11 · Utrecht 17; on target 6 and 8.
GO Ahead Eagles kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.48 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win31.9%

Draw27.3%

Utrecht to win40.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time40.0%

Utrecht lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 9
Utrecht: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 4
Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.65

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.46

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.7%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.