Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 14

PSV Eindhoven–FC Volendam

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'PSV EindhovenJ. Veerman (assist: R. Pepi)
24'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi (assist: I. Saibari)
54'PSV EindhovenG. Til (assist: E. Bajraktarevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		FC Volendam
19	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
642	Passes	397
586	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 3.40 · FC Volendam 0.48. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 19 · FC Volendam 10; on target 8 and 2.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands→

1.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.8%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.52 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.86 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 95.8% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,039 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win86.8%

Draw8.9%

FC Volendam to win4.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	4

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time74.7%

Level at half-time21.8%

FC Volendam lead at half-time3.5%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level96.5%

12 — not level at half-time78.2%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead25.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1039 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 8Actual: 12
FC Volendam: at least 8Actual: 4

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 7Actual: 5
FC Volendam: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score3.40

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.40 goals.

How many goals FC Volendam score0.48

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.4%3–18.7%4–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.